Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 369 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 369 SFO 07:20 → MIA 16:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 278 SFO 22:40 → FLL 07:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 369 American Flight history →	SFO 07:20	MIA 16:06	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 1230 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	FLL 05:59	11%	4%	0.6%	75%
UA 1769 United Flight history →	SFO 22:54	MIA 07:39	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 2029 United Flight history →	SFO 08:40	MIA 17:29	14%	5%	0.6%	73%
AA 2799 American Flight history →	SFO 23:49	MIA 08:35	16%	5%	0.7%	72%
AA 1545 American Flight history →	SFO 21:49	MIA 06:34	20%	5%	0.7%	56%
B6 378 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:00	FLL 19:45	22%	6%	0.7%	77%
AA 2565 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	MIA 20:05	22%	6%	0.7%	58%
B6 278 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 22:40	FLL 07:22	25%	11%	0.7%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:59UA 505	1h 26m Houston	IAH 07:25 → MIA 11:12UA 1966	8h 07m	96%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47UA 2188	7h 47m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745	8h 28m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON