Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2861 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2861 SFO 06:50 → IAD 15:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2683 SFO 21:10 → BWI 05:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2861 United	SFO 06:50	IAD 15:16	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1849 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	IAD 16:25	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	SFO 22:40	BWI 07:10	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1083 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	IAD 07:30	13%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 599 United	SFO 08:20	IAD 16:26	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	14%	5%	0.7%	87%
UA 357 United Flight history →	SFO 21:30	IAD 05:53	16%	4%	0.6%	74%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	16%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:58	16%	4%	0.6%	67%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	19%	6%	0.7%	76%
WN 621 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:40	BWI 05:45	19%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	21%	7%	0.6%	71%
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	22%	5%	0.7%	78%
WN 2683 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 21:10	BWI 05:25	28%	4%	0.6%	43%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 07m	94%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON