Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2664 at 09:33 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2664 SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2683 SFO 21:10 → BWI 05:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1849 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	IAD 16:25	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	SFO 22:40	BWI 07:10	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 1083 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	IAD 07:30	11%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	11%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	13%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	13%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 357 United Flight history →	SFO 21:30	IAD 05:53	13%	4%	0.6%	74%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:58	14%	4%	0.6%	67%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	15%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	18%	6%	0.6%	71%
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	18%	5%	0.7%	78%
WN 621 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:40	BWI 05:45	20%	5%	0.6%	74%
WN 2683 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 21:10	BWI 05:25	28%	4%	0.6%	43%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 07m	95%	90%
United Details →	SFO 06:00 → LAS 07:46UA 582	1h 02m Las Vegas	LAS 08:48 → IAD 16:24UA 1140	7h 24m	98%	88%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON