Today: WN 351 at 11:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet today WN 351 BDL 11:35 → BWI 13:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4075 BDL 17:10 → BWI 18:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 351 Southwest	BDL 11:35	BWI 13:08	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4428 Southwest Flight history →	BDL 12:40	BWI 14:05	7%	2%	0.4%	76%
WN 423 Southwest Flight history →	BDL 14:50	BWI 16:20	8%	2%	0.5%	79%
WN 1011 Southwest	BDL 16:25	BWI 17:58	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4733 Southwest	BDL 17:50	BWI 19:23	15%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4075 Southwest Flight history →	BDL 17:10	BWI 18:35	16%	3%	0.5%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON