Today: AA 1449 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet today AA 1449 BDL 10:20 → CLT 12:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1260 BDL 17:18 → CLT 19:27 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1449 American Flight history →	BDL 10:20	CLT 12:27	11%	4%	0.3%	89%
AA 2838 American Flight history →	BDL 10:00	CLT 12:02	11%	4%	0.3%	89%
AA 2741 American Flight history →	BDL 14:10	CLT 16:09	14%	4%	0.4%	68%
AA 1448 American Flight history →	BDL 14:44	CLT 17:00	18%	6%	0.4%	56%
AA 3099 American	BDL 19:25	CLT 21:28	26%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 1443 American Flight history →	BDL 17:28	CLT 19:45	26%	6%	0.4%	69%
AA 1260 American	BDL 17:18	CLT 19:27	27%	6%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON