Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:50 pm at Hartford); 8 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: OH 5377 at 20:00 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46%.

Nonstops today


OH 5377 PSA	BDL 20:00	DCA 21:44	33%	23%	1.0%	no record
AA 5412 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BDL 19:33	DCA 21:10	46%	27%	1.0%	25%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BDL 17:22 → ORD 19:29AA 3409 · flown by Envoy	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 21:04 → DCA 00:15 +1AA 514	6h 53m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	BDL 17:21 → ATL 20:14DL 2739	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 31m	92%	67%
Delta Details →	BDL 17:05 → DTW 19:15DL 2814	2h 09m Detroit	DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073	5h 54m	96%	66%
American Details →	BDL 16:25 → CLT 18:16AA 2741	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:16AA 2432	5h 51m	100%	52%
American Details →	BDL 17:28 → CLT 19:45AA 1443	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	6h 25m	90%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44UA 2627	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	5h 59m	74%	58%
American Details →	BDL 17:28 → CLT 19:45AA 1443	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:16AA 2432	4h 48m	57%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON