tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:03 pm at Hartford); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 13:15, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:15 → DTW 15:10DL 2163 1h 08m Detroit DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934 5h 14m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → BDL 15:06 → DCA 16:44AA 5059 · flown by PSA 3h 14m Washington DCA 19:58 → JFK 21:30AA 4474 · flown by Republic 6h 24m 94% 67%
AmericanDetails → BDL 14:10 → CLT 16:10AA 2741 1h 52m Charlotte CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657 5h 56m 90% 63%
JetBlueDetails → BDL 14:18 → MCO 17:17B6 2937 1h 21m Orlando MCO 18:38 → JFK 21:29B6 1284 7h 11m 78% 37%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BDL 19:10 → ATL 21:54DL 2735 47m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632 5h 40m 73% 55%
AmericanDetails → BDL 17:28 → CLT 19:45AA 1443 1h 09m Charlotte CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727 5h 32m 68% 47%
AmericanDetails → BDL 13:11 → DCA 14:04AA 5508 · flown by PSA 50m Washington DCA 14:54 → JFK 16:29AA 4781 · flown by Republic 3h 18m 51% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON