Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4336 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 4336 BDL 06:50 → MDW 08:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 428 BDL 19:10 → MDW 20:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4336 Southwest	BDL 06:50	MDW 08:29	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4212 Southwest Flight history →	BDL 07:55	MDW 09:15	5%	1%	0.2%	82%
WN 2662 Southwest	BDL 12:30	MDW 14:06	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 427 Southwest Flight history →	BDL 12:40	MDW 14:05	9%	2%	0.5%	78%
WN 4226 Southwest	BDL 19:05	MDW 20:43	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 428 Southwest Flight history →	BDL 19:10	MDW 20:40	14%	3%	0.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON