tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:28 am at Hartford); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2007 Delta Flight history → BDL 11:39 MSP 13:34 10% 3% 0.1% 83%
DL 2285 Delta Flight history → BDL 18:55 MSP 21:00 12% 4% 0.1% 71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BDL 17:22 → ORD 19:29AA 3409 · flown by Envoy 3h 07m Chicago ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic 8h 00m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → BDL 10:28 → IAD 12:00UA 1786 1h 20m Dulles IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic 5h 43m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → BDL 12:58 → ORD 14:54AA 4665 · flown by Republic 1h 06m Chicago ORD 16:00 → MSP 17:33AA 4746 · flown by Republic 5h 35m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → BDL 17:05 → DTW 19:15DL 2814 1h 47m Detroit DTW 21:02 → MSP 21:54DL 8815 5h 49m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:15 → DTW 15:10DL 2163 3h 00m Detroit DTW 18:10 → MSP 19:07DL 1842 6h 52m 98% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 12:40 → MDW 14:05WN 427 3h 00m Chicago MDW 17:05 → MSP 18:35WN 4643 6h 55m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → BDL 12:12 → ORD 13:57UA 378 2h 21m Chicago ORD 16:18 → MSP 18:13UA 1935 7h 01m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44UA 2627 2h 44m Chicago ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131 7h 15m 94% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 15:30 → DEN 17:58UA 2239 47m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 7h 20m 70% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON