Today: AA 3409 at 17:22 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–36%.

Safest bet today AA 3409 BDL 17:22 → ORD 19:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest OO 5005 BDL 17:48 → ORD 19:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3409 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BDL 17:22	ORD 19:29	16%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 2627 United Flight history →	BDL 16:55	ORD 18:44	24%	9%	0.2%	63%
OO 5005 SkyWest	BDL 17:48	ORD 19:20	36%	10%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON