tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:07 am at Hartford); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5857 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record BDL 19:31 PHL 20:55 23% 9% 8.6% 77%
AA 6036 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record BDL 14:36 PHL 16:00 31% 12% 3.0% 69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BDL 17:05 → DTW 19:15DL 2814 2h 20m Detroit DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402 6h 11m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → BDL 12:12 → ORD 13:57UA 378 2h 21m Chicago ORD 16:18 → PHL 19:34UA 2825 7h 22m 94% 72%
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:15 → DTW 15:10DL 2163 2h 30m Detroit DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686 6h 10m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → BDL 11:39 → MSP 13:34DL 2007 51m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594 6h 25m 85% 71%
AmericanDetails → BDL 17:28 → CLT 19:45AA 1443 2h 44m Charlotte CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189 6h 54m 93% 70%
AmericanDetails → BDL 12:58 → ORD 14:54AA 4665 · flown by Republic 2h 26m Chicago ORD 17:20 → PHL 20:30AA 1743 7h 32m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → BDL 17:22 → ORD 19:29AA 3409 · flown by Envoy 1h 36m Chicago ORD 21:05 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 3177 7h 00m 93% 70%
DeltaDetails → BDL 19:10 → ATL 21:54DL 2735 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 5h 49m 84% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 19:45 → IAD 21:14UA 3999 · flown by Mesa 56m Dulles IAD 22:10 → PHL 23:20UA 3502 · flown by Republic 3h 35m 68% 54%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 17:10 → MCO 20:05WN 692 55m Orlando MCO 21:00 → PHL 23:37WN 2803 6h 27m 56% 38%
FrontierDetails → BDL 15:06 → MCO 18:17F9 2769 1h 04m Orlando MCO 19:21 → PHL 22:09F9 4404 7h 03m 66% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON