tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:08 am at Hartford); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 08:47, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 08:47 → ORD 10:40UA 4664 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Chicago ORD 13:13 → TPA 17:00UA 2244 8h 13m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → BDL 08:20 → IAH 11:10UA 1361 1h 40m Houston IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501 7h 52m 95% 75%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 12:40 → BWI 14:05WN 4428 1h 26m Baltimore BWI 15:31 → TPA 18:09WN 2557 5h 29m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859 2h 32m Detroit DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243 7h 02m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 17:10 → BWI 18:35WN 4075 2h 45m Baltimore BWI 21:20 → TPA 23:55WN 4578 6h 45m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → BDL 17:21 → ATL 20:14DL 2739 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 7h 08m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → BDL 10:47 → PHL 12:10AA 5997 · flown by Piedmont 2h 42m Philadelphia PHL 14:52 → TPA 17:48AA 2055 7h 01m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → BDL 12:12 → ORD 13:57UA 378 2h 43m Chicago ORD 16:40 → TPA 20:24UA 1393 8h 12m 95% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa 54m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 4h 49m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON