Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:27 pm at Bangor); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AA 4348 at 17:03 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43%.

Nonstops today


AA 4348 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BGR 17:03	LGA 18:49	31%	9%	1.2%	69%
DL 5010 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BGR 17:16	LGA 18:32	43%	9%	1.1%	68%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BGR 16:35 → ORD 18:57UA 4732 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 20:08 → LGA 23:26UA 2827	6h 51m	81%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BGR 16:35 → ORD 18:57UA 4732 · flown by SkyWest	48m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655	6h 40m	57%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON