Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5441 BGR 16:36 → PHL 18:36 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5134 BGR 17:56 → PHL 19:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5441 PSA	BGR 16:36	PHL 18:36	17%	9%	1.0%	no record
OH 5134 PSA	BGR 17:56	PHL 19:55	18%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 6123 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BGR 11:16	PHL 13:13	10%	7%	0.0%	90%
AA 6038 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BGR 16:49	PHL 18:51	36%	19%	5.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON