tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:59 am at Birmingham); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: AA 2349 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet today AA 2349 BHM 08:26 → CLT 10:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 6469 BHM 13:05 → CLT 15:42 · 25% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.
AA 2349 American Flight history → BHM 08:26 CLT 10:59 11% 3% 0.5% 94%
OH 5068 PSA BHM 10:20 CLT 12:52 15% 4% 0.7% no record
OH 5048 PSA BHM 06:59 CLT 09:31 15% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 5077 American flown by PSA Flight history → BHM 18:42 CLT 21:27 22% 6% 0.9% 48%
AA 5075 American flown by PSA Flight history → BHM 14:45 CLT 17:29 23% 7% 0.8% 62%
AA 5584 American flown by PSA Flight history → BHM 18:34 CLT 21:04 23% 5% 0.9% 71%
AA 6196 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → BHM 12:39 CLT 15:22 24% 7% 0.3% 79%
OH 5579 PSA BHM 15:51 CLT 18:23 24% 7% 0.8% no record
OO 6469 SkyWest BHM 13:05 CLT 15:42 25% 6% 0.3% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON