Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2948 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2948 BHM 06:35 → DAL 08:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4818 BHM 19:20 → DAL 21:19 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2948 Southwest	BHM 06:35	DAL 08:33	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 239 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 06:15	DAL 08:00	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 4328 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 12:15	DAL 14:00	16%	4%	0.7%	69%
WN 225 Southwest	BHM 13:55	DAL 15:53	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 496 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 16:20	DAL 18:05	25%	6%	0.6%	41%
WN 4818 Southwest	BHM 19:20	DAL 21:19	27%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON