Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5332 at 11:16 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 5332 BHM 11:16 → DCA 14:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 5452 BHM 17:47 → DCA 21:00 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5332 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 11:16	DCA 14:30	16%	8%	1.2%	77%
AA 5080 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 10:32	DCA 13:44	18%	8%	1.2%	69%
AA 5561 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 06:00	DCA 09:18	20%	8%	2.7%	90%
MQ 3374 Envoy	BHM 06:51	DCA 09:50	21%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 5147 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 17:16	DCA 20:32	28%	13%	1.3%	64%
AA 5452 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 17:47	DCA 21:00	29%	15%	1.3%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON