Today: AA 3469 at 12:23 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–42%.

Safest bet today AA 3469 BHM 12:23 → DFW 14:35 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 5329 BHM 16:49 → DFW 19:00 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3469 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 12:23	DFW 14:35	21%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 2671 American	BHM 12:06	DFW 14:26	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4210 Envoy	BHM 15:07	DFW 17:16	31%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 3417 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 19:05	DFW 21:20	33%	7%	0.6%	64%
MQ 3359 Envoy	BHM 19:34	DFW 21:43	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 15:12	DFW 17:23	42%	14%	1.3%	48%
AA 5316 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 16:44	DFW 18:56	42%	14%	1.3%	48%
AA 5329 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 16:49	DFW 19:00	42%	13%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON