Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4977 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 06:00	LGA 09:29	10%	5%	4.8%	90%
DL 4936 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 11:10	LGA 14:45	26%	10%	4.5%	74%
DL 4972 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 17:35	LGA 21:14	39%	29%	18.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON