Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: WN 462 at 07:05, 7%.

Safest bet that day WN 462 BHM 07:05 → MCO 09:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 997 BHM 18:15 → MCO 20:57 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 462 Southwest	BHM 07:05	MCO 09:47	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 440 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 06:50	MCO 09:25	8%	3%	0.9%	94%
WN 455 Southwest	BHM 12:10	MCO 14:52	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 3656 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 17:20	MCO 20:10	39%	14%	1.3%	55%
WN 997 Southwest	BHM 18:15	MCO 20:57	42%	13%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON