Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: WN 464 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–19%.

Safest bet today WN 464 BHM 05:10 → MDW 07:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 375 BHM 15:30 → MDW 17:32 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 464 Southwest	BHM 05:10	MDW 07:12	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 442 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 05:00	MDW 06:50	5%	1%	0.3%	100%
WN 375 Southwest	BHM 15:30	MDW 17:32	19%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON