Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:42 pm at Birmingham); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 3422 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 19:08	MIA 22:11	20%	6%	0.2%	75%
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 17:26	MIA 20:28	21%	6%	0.2%	50%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BHM 15:37 → ORD 18:00AA 3971 · flown by Envoy	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 19:27 → MIA 23:36AA 1159	6h 59m	89%	68%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 39m	96%	68%
American Details →	BHM 15:12 → DFW 17:23AA 5063 · flown by PSA	2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:20 → MIA 00:12 +1AA 2090	8h 00m	89%	53%
American Details →	BHM 14:45 → CLT 17:29AA 5075 · flown by PSA	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 20:15 → MIA 22:21AA 2321	6h 36m	88%	53%
Southwest Details →	BHM 17:20 → MCO 20:10WN 3656	1h 45m Orlando	MCO 21:55 → MIA 23:04WN 4950	4h 44m	91%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BHM 16:49 → DFW 19:00AA 5329 · flown by PSA	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:20 → MIA 00:12 +1AA 2090	6h 23m	59%	35%
American Details →	BHM 17:47 → PHL 21:07AA 5064 · flown by PSA	48m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	6h 05m	48%	32%
American Details →	BHM 15:12 → DFW 17:23AA 5063 · flown by PSA	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:10 → MIA 22:05AA 2206	5h 53m	43%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON