Today: AA 3971 at 15:37 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–35%.

Safest bet today AA 3971 BHM 15:37 → ORD 18:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OO 5727 BHM 14:01 → ORD 16:16 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3971 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 15:37	ORD 18:00	20%	4%	0.2%	79%
OO 6256 SkyWest	BHM 13:20	ORD 15:36	26%	7%	0.2%	no record
OO 5727 SkyWest	BHM 14:01	ORD 16:16	35%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 4168 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 13:22	ORD 15:45	35%	9%	2.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON