Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5218 BHM 06:00 → PHL 09:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OH 5547 BHM 13:16 → PHL 16:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5218 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 06:00	PHL 09:20	11%	4%	1.3%	91%
AA 5064 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 17:47	PHL 21:07	16%	7%	0.9%	63%
OH 5547 PSA	BHM 13:16	PHL 16:40	19%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON