Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:51 am at Birmingham)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3193 at 14:20, 35%.

Nonstops today


WN 3193 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 14:20	TPA 16:50	35%	9%	0.3%	46%
WN 1948 Southwest	BHM 17:15	TPA 19:52	40%	14%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BHM 17:26 → MIA 20:28AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	2h 45m Miami	MIA 23:13 → TPA 00:19 +1AA 1714	5h 53m	97%	71%
Southwest Details →	BHM 14:40 → BWI 17:40WN 432	1h 30m Baltimore	BWI 19:10 → TPA 21:55WN 1123	6h 15m	90%	66%
American Details →	BHM 12:39 → CLT 15:22AA 6196 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Charlotte	CLT 18:50 → TPA 20:42AA 3051	7h 03m	95%	59%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	6h 02m	97%	58%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 22:01 → TPA 23:33DL 8844	6h 33m	97%	57%
American Details →	BHM 18:34 → CLT 21:03AA 5584 · flown by PSA	1h 44m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → TPA 00:39 +1AA 1773	5h 05m	86%	57%
American Details →	BHM 14:45 → CLT 17:29AA 5075 · flown by PSA	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 20:16 → TPA 21:59AA 2022	6h 14m	92%	57%
Southwest Details →	BHM 12:10 → HOU 13:55WN 4517	1h 20m Houston	HOU 15:15 → TPA 18:35WN 2134	5h 25m	88%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BHM 15:08 → IAH 17:07UA 3991 · flown by Mesa	1h 03m Houston	IAH 18:10 → TPA 21:29UA 1312	5h 21m	61%	40%
American Details →	BHM 15:12 → DFW 17:23AA 5063 · flown by PSA	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → TPA 22:08AA 2401	5h 56m	64%	35%
Southwest Details →	BHM 17:15 → DEN 19:05WN 437	50m Denver	DEN 19:55 → TPA 01:35 +1WN 2232	7h 20m	46%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON