Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3746 BIL 06:00 → DFW 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3429 BIL 13:29 → DFW 17:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3746 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 06:00	DFW 09:55	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 13:28	DFW 17:22	16%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 3429 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 13:29	DFW 17:20	16%	3%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON