Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:10 pm at Billings); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 18:34, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 18:34 → SLC 20:09DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:17 → MSP 00:53 +1DL 8803	5h 19m	92%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BIL 18:00 → DEN 19:52UA 4758 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	4h 59m	75%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON