tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:10 pm at Billings)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 3428 at 12:59, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3428 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BIL 12:59 ORD 16:59 13% 3% 0.2% 79%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BIL 13:28 → DFW 17:22AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:28 → ORD 22:15AA 3531 · flown by Envoy 7h 47m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → BIL 13:29 → DFW 17:20AA 3429 · flown by Envoy 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:31 → ORD 23:03AA 3790 · flown by Envoy 8h 34m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258 7h 24m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → BIL 15:57 → DEN 17:37UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Denver DEN 20:21 → ORD 23:53UA 377 6h 56m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → BIL 16:10 → DEN 18:03UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 21:05 → ORD 00:44 +1UA 2649 7h 34m 92% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON