Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4730 Southwest	BNA 13:10	ABQ 15:17	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4621 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:00	ABQ 14:55	22%	4%	0.5%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800	1h 35m Denver	DEN 08:35 → ABQ 10:00WN 865	5h 45m	100%	94%
Southwest Details →	BNA 08:15 → MCI 09:55WN 4289	4h 00m Kansas City	MCI 13:55 → ABQ 15:04WN 5040	7h 49m	100%	92%
United Details →	BNA 15:01 → ORD 17:04UA 3440 · flown by Republic	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 20:00 → ABQ 22:34UA 3640 · flown by Republic	8h 33m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635	3h 20m Phoenix	PHX 10:15 → ABQ 12:30WN 106	8h 10m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:00 → HOU 07:00WN 4430	1h 05m Houston	HOU 08:05 → ABQ 09:35WN 4682	5h 35m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485	1h 50m Dallas	DAL 08:50 → ABQ 09:46WN 2196	5h 36m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	3h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:10 → ABQ 15:54DL 3820 · flown by SkyWest	9h 19m	98%	87%
United Details →	BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42UA 396	3h 22m Houston	IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa	7h 57m	100%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800	50m Denver	DEN 07:50 → ABQ 09:15WN 3056	5h 00m	46%	43%
Southwest Details →	BNA 16:20 → PHX 18:00WN 639	55m Phoenix	PHX 18:55 → ABQ 21:05WN 1050	5h 45m	60%	38%
American Details →	BNA 17:45 → DFW 20:02AA 1496	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:56 → ABQ 22:00AA 1321	5h 15m	63%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON