Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2673 BNA 13:56 → ALB 17:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 323 BNA 17:11 → ALB 20:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2673 Southwest	BNA 13:56	ALB 17:06	26%	4%	0.1%	no record
G4 353 Allegiant	BNA 16:55	ALB 20:08	33%	9%	0.6%	no record
G4 323 Allegiant Flight history →	BNA 17:11	ALB 20:20	33%	9%	0.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON