Today: DL 2637 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–48%.

Safest bet today DL 2637 BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 446 BNA 18:35 → ATL 20:50 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2637 Delta Flight history →	BNA 05:10	ATL 07:21	9%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2250 Delta Flight history →	BNA 08:33	ATL 10:40	12%	3%	0.5%	97%
DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	BNA 09:48	ATL 12:00	14%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 3001 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:18	ATL 08:30	16%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2802 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:32	ATL 09:45	16%	3%	0.5%	89%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:54	ATL 13:04	18%	4%	0.5%	89%
DL 1490 Delta Flight history →	BNA 19:57	ATL 22:23	19%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:51	ATL 17:04	19%	3%	0.8%	78%
DL 2129 Delta	BNA 15:44	ATL 17:59	19%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	BNA 12:38	ATL 14:50	22%	2%	0.9%	84%
WN 4782 Southwest	BNA 10:21	ATL 12:36	22%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:31	ATL 18:49	22%	3%	0.9%	69%
WN 447 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:50	ATL 01:05	24%	6%	0.6%	64%
WN 2533 Southwest	BNA 20:35	ATL 22:51	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 893 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:50	ATL 15:00	31%	3%	0.6%	46%
DL 719 Delta Flight history →	BNA 18:55	ATL 21:16	31%	4%	0.8%	70%
WN 215 Southwest	BNA 16:10	ATL 18:26	33%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 758 Delta	BNA 19:02	ATL 21:18	33%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 446 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:35	ATL 20:50	48%	6%	0.6%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON