Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1271 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1271 BNA 05:15 → AUS 07:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1900 BNA 17:45 → AUS 19:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1271 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:15	AUS 07:25	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 474 Southwest	BNA 05:07	AUS 07:32	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 477 Southwest	BNA 08:17	AUS 10:39	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4149 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:00	AUS 10:10	10%	2%	0.5%	80%
WN 1663 Southwest	BNA 09:22	AUS 11:45	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4146 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 07:05	AUS 09:31	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
WN 450 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:30	AUS 13:40	18%	3%	0.5%	83%
WN 451 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:30	AUS 16:40	20%	4%	0.5%	46%
WN 2093 Southwest	BNA 12:55	AUS 15:18	20%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3960 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 11:24	AUS 13:50	20%	6%	0.6%	80%
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 18:48	AUS 21:19	22%	5%	0.7%	75%
WN 454 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:35	AUS 00:50	22%	4%	0.5%	54%
WN 1900 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:45	AUS 19:55	23%	5%	0.5%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON