Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:58 pm at Nashville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: Southwest via BWI, leaving 18:05, 47% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 18:05 → BWI 21:00WN 467	1h 55m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → BDL 00:20 +1WN 1879	5h 15m	81%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 18:30 → IAD 21:23UA 1460	1h 02m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → BDL 23:59UA 444	4h 29m	72%	59%
Southwest Details →	BNA 18:05 → BWI 21:00WN 467	1h 27m Baltimore	BWI 22:27 → BDL 23:47WN 954	4h 42m	71%	41%
JetBlue Details →	BNA 18:03 → JFK 21:34B6 1174	1h 06m New York	JFK 22:40 → BDL 23:59B6 675	4h 56m	56%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON