Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 486 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 486 BNA 06:34 → BOS 10:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 406 BNA 16:16 → BOS 19:46 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 486 Southwest	BNA 06:34	BOS 10:02	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 2509 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:30	BOS 11:11	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BNA 11:15	BOS 14:59	14%	3%	0.7%	79%
B6 806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 05:58	BOS 09:31	16%	4%	0.7%	93%
WN 4999 Southwest	BNA 10:15	BOS 13:41	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4560 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:15	BOS 13:40	18%	3%	0.5%	70%
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:35	BOS 21:19	23%	5%	0.8%	64%
B6 1806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 09:10	BOS 12:41	26%	10%	0.6%	67%
WN 4372 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:20	BOS 16:50	30%	6%	0.5%	38%
WN 459 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:35	BOS 00:15	30%	6%	0.5%	43%
WN 2539 Southwest	BNA 14:15	BOS 17:41	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 490 Southwest	BNA 20:13	BOS 23:38	33%	6%	0.5%	no record
B6 506 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 19:45	BOS 23:21	33%	12%	0.7%	63%
WN 3294 Southwest	BNA 17:30	BOS 20:56	35%	7%	0.5%	no record
B6 406 JetBlue	BNA 16:16	BOS 19:46	35%	11%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON