Today: WN 462 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–24%.

Safest bet today WN 462 BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 497 BNA 14:42 → BWI 17:36 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 462 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:45	BWI 09:35	5%	1%	0.3%	86%
WN 942 Southwest	BNA 07:26	BWI 10:23	5%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 499 Southwest	BNA 21:38	BWI 00:32	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 468 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:30	BWI 23:20	22%	6%	0.5%	30%
WN 687 Southwest	BNA 19:04	BWI 21:59	24%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 467 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:05	BWI 21:00	24%	6%	0.5%	38%
WN 1345 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:05	BWI 14:55	25%	3%	0.3%	75%
WN 2994 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:25	BWI 16:15	25%	4%	0.4%	73%
WN 497 Southwest	BNA 14:42	BWI 17:36	28%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON