Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2349 at 10:20, 22%.

Safest bet today WN 2349 BNA 10:20 → CHS 12:58 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 482 BNA 13:39 → CHS 16:14 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2349 Southwest	BNA 10:20	CHS 12:58	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 469 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:10	CHS 12:40	24%	4%	0.6%	71%
WN 504 Southwest	BNA 19:05	CHS 21:42	27%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4561 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:10	CHS 21:40	30%	6%	0.8%	37%
WN 470 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:05	CHS 15:35	36%	7%	0.6%	57%
WN 482 Southwest	BNA 13:39	CHS 16:14	38%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON