Today: WN 4571 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet today WN 4571 BNA 10:00 → CLE 12:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 4778 BNA 15:23 → CLE 17:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4571 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:00	CLE 12:30	14%	1%	0.1%	84%
WN 2772 Southwest	BNA 10:31	CLE 13:03	14%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 473 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:35	CLE 17:05	22%	5%	0.4%	42%
WN 507 Southwest	BNA 20:28	CLE 23:01	22%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 4778 Southwest	BNA 15:23	CLE 17:55	25%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON