Today: AA 2692 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–48%.

Safest bet today AA 2692 BNA 07:13 → CLT 09:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 159 BNA 17:16 → CLT 19:42 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 2692 American Flight history →	BNA 07:13	CLT 09:50	11%	3%	0.3%	80%
AA 2940 American	BNA 09:39	CLT 12:00	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 831 American	BNA 08:45	CLT 11:09	15%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 1223 Southwest	BNA 10:41	CLT 13:03	16%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4518 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:50	CLT 23:20	22%	5%	0.5%	50%
AA 1486 American Flight history →	BNA 14:52	CLT 17:30	22%	5%	0.2%	82%
AA 5082 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 12:32	CLT 15:08	23%	4%	0.5%	72%
WN 4821 Southwest	BNA 20:25	CLT 22:47	25%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 5083 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 12:43	CLT 15:09	25%	4%	0.5%	85%
AA 1108 American	BNA 14:59	CLT 17:32	26%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 519 American Flight history →	BNA 17:56	CLT 20:18	28%	5%	1.6%	59%
AA 845 American	BNA 16:22	CLT 18:44	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 1497 American Flight history →	BNA 19:19	CLT 21:55	39%	6%	1.3%	62%
AA 1526 American Flight history →	BNA 16:30	CLT 19:05	39%	6%	0.2%	53%
AA 2402 American	BNA 19:11	CLT 21:35	44%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 478 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:40	CLT 19:10	47%	4%	0.2%	26%
WN 159 Southwest	BNA 17:16	CLT 19:42	48%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON