Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4427 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4427 BNA 10:05 → CMH 12:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 850 BNA 19:20 → CMH 21:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4427 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:05	CMH 12:25	9%	2%	0.5%	86%
WN 4666 Southwest	BNA 10:26	CMH 12:49	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 5059 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:40	CMH 21:05	25%	5%	0.5%	80%
WN 513 Southwest	BNA 15:56	CMH 18:19	26%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 481 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:40	CMH 19:00	30%	5%	0.5%	42%
WN 850 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:20	CMH 21:45	30%	6%	0.5%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON