Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 485 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 485 BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 490 BNA 18:55 → DAL 20:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 485 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:10	DAL 07:00	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 522 Southwest	BNA 06:40	DAL 08:41	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 487 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:10	DAL 13:05	11%	2%	0.6%	69%
WN 5046 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:20	DAL 14:15	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 488 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:35	DAL 15:30	16%	3%	0.6%	48%
WN 489 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:25	DAL 17:20	18%	4%	0.6%	52%
WN 5071 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:15	DAL 19:10	19%	4%	0.6%	67%
WN 3230 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:40	DAL 21:35	22%	5%	0.5%	32%
WN 490 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:55	DAL 20:50	24%	5%	0.5%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON