Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 536 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 536 BNA 05:35 → DCA 08:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 165 BNA 17:10 → DCA 19:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 17% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 536 Southwest	BNA 05:35	DCA 08:24	8%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4991 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:40	DCA 08:25	8%	1%	0.2%	85%
YX 5835 Republic	BNA 05:58	DCA 08:55	9%	4%	0.2%	no record
YX 4356 Republic	BNA 06:00	DCA 08:57	10%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 5708 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 06:05	DCA 09:02	11%	4%	0.2%	84%
YX 4566 Republic	BNA 11:37	DCA 14:47	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 5857 Republic	BNA 11:44	DCA 14:40	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 5769 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 11:40	DCA 14:34	19%	5%	0.7%	63%
AA 5440 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 06:00	DCA 09:04	20%	6%	1.0%	100%worse than usual
WN 322 Southwest	BNA 11:30	DCA 14:19	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4562 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:15	DCA 14:00	23%	5%	0.6%	39%
AA 4374 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:39	DCA 20:35	24%	5%	0.7%	73%
YX 4563 Republic	BNA 15:49	DCA 19:00	24%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4380 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:55	DCA 16:45	25%	6%	0.6%	48%
WN 537 Southwest	BNA 14:06	DCA 16:55	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
YX 5861 Republic	BNA 17:03	DCA 19:59	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 4495 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 16:51	DCA 19:55	26%	5%	0.7%	68%
AA 3991 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 15:30	DCA 18:26	27%	5%	0.9%	70%
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 10:41	DCA 13:44	27%	11%	1.2%	60%
DL 5786 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:00	DCA 19:57	28%	5%	0.7%	62%
WN 3821 Southwest	BNA 16:40	DCA 19:29	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1163 American Flight history →	BNA 19:38	DCA 22:29	32%	6%	2.7%	66%
WN 165 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:10	DCA 19:55	33%	9%	0.6%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON