Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2821 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2821 BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1199 BNA 19:29 → DFW 21:36 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2821 American Flight history →	BNA 05:01	DFW 07:12	11%	6%	0.5%	89%
AA 849 American	BNA 05:53	DFW 08:01	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2787 American Flight history →	BNA 06:01	DFW 08:20	14%	6%	0.6%	87%
AA 2510 American	BNA 08:06	DFW 10:35	14%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 1515 American Flight history →	BNA 08:01	DFW 10:14	15%	7%	0.6%	86%
AA 3397 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 09:58	DFW 12:13	16%	5%	0.7%	76%
AA 1103 American Flight history →	BNA 10:15	DFW 12:32	19%	6%	2.1%	84%
AA 2583 American Flight history →	BNA 07:04	DFW 09:18	20%	8%	0.6%	83%
AA 1520 American Flight history →	BNA 12:45	DFW 14:58	25%	6%	2.3%	74%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	BNA 12:25	DFW 14:35	25%	6%	2.3%	79%
AA 3925 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 18:43	DFW 21:00	33%	5%	0.7%	62%
AA 1522 American Flight history →	BNA 16:36	DFW 18:53	34%	7%	2.3%	53%
AA 1475 American Flight history →	BNA 15:31	DFW 17:44	35%	7%	2.3%	51%
AA 1084 American	BNA 15:02	DFW 17:11	35%	6%	2.7%	no record
AA 1496 American Flight history →	BNA 17:45	DFW 20:02	35%	8%	2.7%	50%
F9 3051 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 19:58	DFW 22:15	36%	14%	1.2%	77%worse than usual
AA 1313 American	BNA 18:12	DFW 20:36	36%	7%	2.7%	no record
AA 1181 American	BNA 16:56	DFW 19:18	37%	6%	3.2%	no record
AA 5475 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 19:34	DFW 21:50	41%	14%	1.2%	48%
AA 1199 American	BNA 19:29	DFW 21:36	41%	7%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON