Today: YX 3408 at 07:18 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–37%.

Safest bet today YX 3408 BNA 07:18 → EWR 10:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 499 BNA 19:25 → EWR 22:48 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


YX 3408 Republic	BNA 07:18	EWR 10:55	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 371 United Flight history →	BNA 07:00	EWR 10:18	8%	2%	0.2%	88%
UA 2690 United Flight history →	BNA 08:10	EWR 11:29	9%	3%	0.3%	83%
UA 2461 United Flight history →	BNA 09:25	EWR 12:44	13%	4%	0.3%	73%
UA 2485 United	BNA 09:26	EWR 12:33	15%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 2174 United Flight history →	BNA 13:15	EWR 16:37	26%	7%	0.4%	74%
UA 2677 United	BNA 15:41	EWR 18:47	33%	8%	0.4%	no record
UA 2848 United Flight history →	BNA 15:35	EWR 19:00	35%	7%	0.4%	57%
UA 499 United Flight history →	BNA 19:25	EWR 22:48	37%	9%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON