Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 999 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 999 BNA 05:15 → FLL 08:33 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2582 BNA 14:27 → FLL 17:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 999 Southwest	BNA 05:15	FLL 08:33	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 516 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:40	FLL 09:55	5%	2%	0.5%	85%
WN 558 Southwest	BNA 09:00	FLL 12:18	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4847 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:15	FLL 14:35	13%	3%	0.5%	76%
B6 682 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 05:45	FLL 08:59	14%	4%	0.9%	100%worse than usual
WN 4030 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:45	FLL 16:05	15%	3%	0.5%	73%
WN 285 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:40	FLL 20:00	18%	5%	0.5%	38%
B6 2482 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 07:50	FLL 11:04	19%	6%	0.8%	95%worse than usual
B6 2582 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 14:27	FLL 17:41	25%	10%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON