Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: UA 1709 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet today UA 1709 BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2382 BNA 18:29 → IAD 21:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1709 United Flight history →	BNA 08:30	IAD 11:17	11%	4%	0.4%	88%
UA 2125 United Flight history →	BNA 13:35	IAD 16:28	21%	6%	0.8%	81%
UA 1460 United Flight history →	BNA 18:30	IAD 21:23	23%	8%	0.8%	66%
UA 2382 United	BNA 18:29	IAD 21:14	25%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON