Today: WN 2448 at 12:55 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet today WN 2448 BNA 12:55 → IND 15:11 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4513 BNA 20:35 → IND 22:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2448 Southwest	BNA 12:55	IND 15:11	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 539 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:35	IND 22:55	21%	6%	0.2%	59%
WN 4513 Southwest	BNA 20:35	IND 22:48	25%	6%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON