Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: WN 2942 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet today WN 2942 BNA 10:20 → JAX 12:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4624 BNA 19:00 → JAX 21:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2942 Southwest	BNA 10:20	JAX 12:59	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 542 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:40	JAX 16:15	26%	5%	0.8%	46%
WN 4631 Southwest	BNA 20:50	JAX 23:29	27%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 2697 Southwest	BNA 14:00	JAX 16:39	28%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 170 Southwest	BNA 17:31	JAX 20:10	30%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 4624 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:00	JAX 21:40	30%	8%	0.9%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON