Today: AA 4712 at 08:43 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–41%.

Safest bet today AA 4712 BNA 08:43 → JFK 12:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 1174 BNA 19:31 → JFK 22:51 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4712 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 08:43	JFK 12:19	8%	4%	0.4%	83%
AA 4693 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 11:28	JFK 15:08	21%	6%	0.5%	69%
B6 274 JetBlue	BNA 10:33	JFK 13:57	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 4350 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 15:47	JFK 19:17	25%	5%	0.7%	73%
B6 1374 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 11:07	JFK 14:30	35%	11%	0.6%	55%
B6 1174 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 19:31	JFK 22:51	41%	14%	1.0%	72%worse than usual
DL 4916 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 07:06	JFK 10:40	13%	8%	4.2%	87%
DL 4919 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 10:00	JFK 13:30	25%	10%	4.4%	75%
DL 4662 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 13:53	JFK 17:39	29%	13%	3.6%	71%
DL 4909 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 18:27	JFK 22:09	31%	19%	8.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON