Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: WN 585 at 22:27, 40%.

Safest bet today WN 585 BNA 22:27 → LAS 00:23 · 40% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 814 BNA 18:50 → LAS 20:52 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 585 Southwest	BNA 22:27	LAS 00:23	40%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 548 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:20	LAS 22:15	46%	4%	0.2%	42%
WN 814 Southwest	BNA 18:50	LAS 20:52	48%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON