Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 891 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 891 BNA 06:28 → LAX 08:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2123 BNA 18:50 → LAX 21:15 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 891 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:28	LAX 08:40	8%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 400 Southwest	BNA 08:05	LAX 10:31	12%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 355 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:59	LAX 17:10	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 991 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:15	LAX 10:30	14%	2%	0.5%	64%
AA 3237 American Flight history →	BNA 07:30	LAX 09:56	16%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 769 Delta Flight history →	BNA 19:30	LAX 21:50	16%	3%	0.6%	74%
WN 551 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:50	LAX 18:10	26%	6%	0.4%	39%
AA 2123 American Flight history →	BNA 18:50	LAX 21:15	35%	6%	0.6%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → LAX 09:20WN 2427	6h 00m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON