Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:31 am at Nashville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Nonstops today


WN 1486 Southwest	BNA 15:26	LGB 17:50	21%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1427 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:35	LGB 16:50	22%	3%	0.2%	48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770	2h 00m Phoenix	PHX 11:40 → LGB 12:55WN 2505	6h 50m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:35 → LAS 08:25WN 544	1h 28m Las Vegas	LAS 09:53 → LGB 11:07WN 4375	6h 32m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	BNA 07:00 → LAS 08:50WN 3993	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260	7h 45m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	BNA 15:05 → SJC 17:40WN 674	2h 10m San Jose	SJC 19:50 → LGB 21:10WN 4907	8h 05m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	BNA 13:25 → DEN 15:10WN 503	3h 05m Denver	DEN 18:15 → LGB 20:00WN 1037	8h 35m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:10 → SMF 16:45WN 4124	2h 50m Sacramento	SMF 19:35 → LGB 21:05WN 4934	8h 55m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 24m	86%	77%
Southwest Details →	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	55m Chicago	MDW 13:15 → LGB 15:30WN 4413	6h 45m	88%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON